شواهدی از الگوی تغییر خطی تکه‌ای اقلام تعهدی و ریشه‌های اقتصادی آن

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری حسابداری، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه حسابداری، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران

3 استادیار گروه حسابداری، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران

چکیده

در پژوهش حاضر، با استفاده از یک نمونه شامل 2642 مشاهده از داده های 15 ساله شرکت های عضو بورس اوراق بهادار تهران برای دوره 1380 تا 1394، شواهدی ارائه می شود که اقلام تعهدی عادی و اجزای آن از یک مدل خطی تکه ای نسبت به تغییر فروش تبعیت می کنند. مطالعه در این خصوص از آن جا اهمیت دارد که تحمیل یک رابطه خطی به الگوی تغییر خطی تکه ای اقلام تعهدی عادی باعث ایجاد یک خطای سیستماتیک قابل پیشبینی در برآوردهای مدل های تعهدی استاندارد می شود. مطابق چارچوب نظری پژوهش، رابطه خطی اقلام تعهدی سرمایه در گردش و تغییر فروش در دوره های افت فروش احتمالا به دلیل تاثیر تغییر مدیریت سرمایه در گردش یا محافظه کاری شرطی به یک الگوی خطی تکه ای تبدیل می شود. برای گردآوری شواهد تجربی، مدل های خطی تکه ای پژوهش با 14 متغیر وابسته متفاوت، شامل سنجه های اقلام تعهدی، اجزای اقلام تعهدی، جریان های نقدی عملیاتی و سود حسابداری، در سطح 17 صنعت مختلف برازش گردید. شواهد پژوهش نشان می دهد که، هنگامی که فروش کاهش می یابد، متعاقب افزایش بدهی های جاری عملیاتی، رشد اقلام تعهدی منفی سرمایه در گردش سریعتر از آهنگ تغییر مورد انتظار آن است. به همین ترتیب، الگوی مشاهده شده تغییر سایر متغیرهای پژوهش در دوره های کاهش فروش با الگوی مورد انتظار طبق عامل تغییر سیاست مدیریت سرمایه در گردش در راستای استمرار بقاء و دسترسی به وجه نقد منطبق است و نه دیگر عوامل اقتصادی رقیب.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evidence for Accruals Piecewise Linear Change and its Microeconomic Origin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Arash Ghorbani 1
  • Mohammad hosein Vadiei 2
  • Mohammad Reza Abbaszadeh 2
  • mahmoud lari dashtebayaz 3
1 Phd. Student of Accounting, Ferdosi university, Mashhad, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Accounting, Ferdosi university, Mashhad, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Accounting, Ferdosi university, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

This study uses a sample comprising 2642 observations of data from firms listed in TSE over the period from 2001 to 2016 in order to find empirical evidence that normal accruals process follow a piecewise linear model with respect to sales change. The main motivation of the study is to highlight this nonlinearity as a source of systematic measurement error because common standard accrual models assume a linear relation between level of accruals and sale changes. According to the theoretical framework of the study, the linear relation of working capital accruals and sale changes will transform into a piecewise linear changein less sale periods because of change in working capital management policy and conditional conservatism. To find the empirical evidence, piecewise linear models are fitted with 14 different dependent variables including accruals measures, accruals components, operating cash flows and earnings, for 17 industries. The research findings show that when sale declines, the average growth of negative working capital accruals is higher than expected, as subsequent of the unexpected increases in operating current liabilities. Also, the other research variables reaction model to sales declines are consistent with the expected model as a result of changes in working capital management policy which is likely due to management’s motivation for preservation of cash and continuation of firm life. This research finds no evidence of dominant effects of other competing factors identified as the origins of accruals nonlinearity in previous research.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Accruals
  • piecewise linear models
  • sales decline
  • change in working capital management policy
  • conditional conservatism
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